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The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19

This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes...

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Main Authors: Prata, David Nadler, Rodrigues, Waldecy, Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza, Moreira, Marina Figueiredo, Camargo, Wainesten, Lisboa, Marcelo, Reis, Geovane Rossone, Araújo, Humberto Xavier de
Format: Artigo
Language: Inglês
Published: PeerJ 2021
Subjects:
Temperatura e umidade tropicais
Covid-19
Modelo aditivo generalizado
Online Access: https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/41614
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
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spelling ir-10482-416142021-08-10T19:34:59Z The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 Prata, David Nadler Rodrigues, Waldecy Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza Moreira, Marina Figueiredo Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Reis, Geovane Rossone Araújo, Humberto Xavier de Temperatura e umidade tropicais Covid-19 Modelo aditivo generalizado This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively. 2021-08-10T19:20:02Z 2021-08-10T19:20:02Z 2021-02-05 Artigo Prata, David et al. The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19. PeerJ, v. 9, e10655, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655. Disponível em: https://peerj.com/articles/10655/. Acesso em: 10 ago. 2021. https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/41614 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655 Inglês Acesso Aberto Copyright 2021 Prata et al. Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0. application/pdf PeerJ
institution REPOSITORIO UNB
collection REPOSITORIO UNB
language Inglês
topic Temperatura e umidade tropicais
Covid-19
Modelo aditivo generalizado
spellingShingle Temperatura e umidade tropicais
Covid-19
Modelo aditivo generalizado
Prata, David Nadler
Rodrigues, Waldecy
Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza
Moreira, Marina Figueiredo
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Reis, Geovane Rossone
Araújo, Humberto Xavier de
The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
description This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively.
format Artigo
author Prata, David Nadler
Rodrigues, Waldecy
Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza
Moreira, Marina Figueiredo
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Reis, Geovane Rossone
Araújo, Humberto Xavier de
author_sort Prata, David Nadler
title The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_short The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_full The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_fullStr The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_sort relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of covid-19
publisher PeerJ
publishDate 2021
url https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/41614
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
_version_ 1710449625153929216
score 13.657419

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